Boxing prediction marketspriced by a model that beats the close.
Our model prices every upcoming boxing fight, tells you exactly which side to bet, at which sportsbook, and how much to stake. Every number is backed by an auditable record — no guesswork, no hand-waving.
+11.92%
Median CLV
892 gated picks
+1583%
¼-Kelly return
production gate · paper
5min
Refresh rate
odds + predictions
75
Sportsbooks tracked
across 5 regions
The model
A machine learning ensemble built for boxing markets.
The model that ships is the one that survived a rigorous, pre-registered audit. Every design decision — from feature selection to bet sizing — was validated on held-out data before going live.
How the model transforms data
What the audit says
Audited performance. Every number verifiable.
Walk-forward backtest under our exact production parameters — the same gate that selects live picks: minimum 3% edge, reward-to-risk capped at 3-to-1, quarter-Kelly staking capped at 3% of bankroll, best price across all 75 tracked sportsbooks, no slippage. 892 qualifying picks. Every figure is computed live from the database with the same engine as the in-portal simulator.
Median CLV
+11.92%
production gate · n=892
Mean CLV
+25.35%
fat-tailed by winners
% beat the close
100%
share of gated picks with +CLV
¼-Kelly return
+1583%
892 picks · 3%/bet cap · edge ≥ 3%
Win rate
83%
gated picks, best book at close
Max drawdown
20%
¼-Kelly equity, peak-to-trough
These numbers are deliberately conservative
Backtests use the closing line — the tightest, hardest-to-beat price — as the bet price. In practice, you bet hours earlier when odds are softer. The reported numbers should be a floor, not a ceiling. Act fast when a BET appears.
Live betting page
Binary BET / NO BET. Stake $ at your bankroll.
No edge sliders, no opt-out toggles, no decisions for the user to make. The production policy decides which picks are bet-eligible. The calculator decides how much to bet. The card tells you the side, the best book, the price, and the stake. That's it.
- Minimum 3% edge required — only picks with real value pass
- Exact dollar stake computed for YOUR bankroll size
- Best price across 75 sportsbooks, automatically selected
- Picks auto-organized: upcoming, awaiting result, settled
- Live freshness indicator — always know how current your data is
- Email alerts the instant a new bet opportunity appears
- Per-pick explainer — see exactly why the model made each call
Bet Optimizer
Three tools beyond the BET / NO BET card.
Even when no fight meets the minimum edge threshold, sportsbooks still disagree on pricing — and those disagreements are opportunities. The Bet Optimizer catches arbitrage, positive-EV value, and hedging opportunities across all your books.
Tailored to YOUR sportsbook accounts.
We track prices from 75sportsbooks across five regions, but you don't have accounts at all of them. Select only the books you can actually bet at — arbs, +EV picks, and hedges are recomputed against just those. Your selection persists between sessions. Presets for sharp books, soft books, or regional groups.
The pipeline
From OddsAPI to your inbox in 5 minutes.
Odds are refreshed every 5 minutes. The model retrains overnight on the latest data. The entire cycle — from fresh odds to a BET card in your inbox — takes under 30 seconds.
1 · Ingest
Every 5 minutes, fresh odds from 40+ sportsbooks are pulled and stored. Fight results are reconciled automatically from multiple data sources.
2 · Predict
The model runs on every fight with current odds. Each prediction includes the ensemble's uncertainty estimate and a full SHAP breakdown of which factors drove the call.
3 · Filter
An audit-derived policy decides BET or NO BET. Only picks with at least 3% edge pass. Bet size is computed via Kelly criterion and capped to protect your bankroll.
4 · Notify
New BET-eligible picks trigger email alerts within seconds. You're never notified about the same fight twice, and the Bet Optimizer updates with fresh cross-book prices.
How we keep the model honest
The discipline that lets the numbers mean something.
Test data sealed before modeling began
The holdout set was locked before we wrote a single line of model code. Results were only checked once, after the full audit.
Six anti-leakage safeguards
Structural protections ensure the model never accidentally sees fight results, closing prices, or future data during training.
Every number is auditable
All reported metrics live in the database, not in code. The portal reads them directly — nothing is calculated on the fly or derived client-side.
Daily re-audit catches drift
The full pipeline re-runs every night. If the model's performance degrades, you see it the next morning — no lag, no surprises.
Deliberately conservative reporting
Backtests use the closing line — the tightest price available. Real execution at earlier, softer prices should outperform the reported numbers.
Full development history in the portal
Every experiment, negative result, and design decision is documented in the System Development Process tab. Nothing is hidden.
How it works
Three steps. One engine.
Open your portal
Create an account and you're in. You'll land on the live predictions page immediately.
Set bankroll, pick your books
Enter your bankroll once. Every BET card shows the exact dollar stake and payout at the best-priced sportsbook. Select only the books you have accounts at.
Get emailed when bets land
Turn on email alerts in settings. New bets hit your inbox within seconds of detection — so you can act before the line moves.
FAQ
Common questions.
See the bets.See the math behind every one.
Live bet cards with exact stakes, cross-book arbitrage and +EV tools tailored to your sportsbooks, a full audit dashboard, and instant email alerts.